The Rise of Cyber-Physical Warfare

Before his assassination, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned people in southern Lebanon to stop using smartphones, labeling them "intelligence spies." This reflects the growing use of AI technologies, particularly Generative AI (GenAI) and machine learning (ML), in turning everyday devices into advanced surveillance tools capable of gathering vast amounts of data. In today’s conflicts, AI’s reach extends far beyond typical battlefield tactics, transforming how wars are fought and nations defend themselves.

AI-Powered Devices: How Smartphones Become Spies

Nasrallah's warning isn’t just a reflection of the region's tensions; it’s indicative of a broader trend where AI can convert smartphones into virtual spy agents. AI enables devices to understand voice patterns, interpret dialects, and predict user behaviors. However, Generative AI (GenAI) takes this further by simulating responses, mimicking voices, and constructing fabricated yet convincing communications. Combined, these technologies can extract sensitive information, relay real-time updates, and deceive targets, blurring the line between civilian technologies and military espionage.

Smartphones equipped with AI have become critical tools for cyber-physical warfare, providing more than just location or basic communication data. Through sophisticated natural language processing (NLP), these devices can listen, understand context, and provide detailed reports to surveillance systems. Such AI-backed intelligence gathering played a role in Nasrallah’s demise, as even low-tech devices, such as pagers, have been weaponized through cyber manipulation, as seen in the recent attacks where pagers used by Hezbollah were exploited and detonated, causing numerous casualties across Lebanon.

The Role of Generative AI in Surveillance and Warfare

Generative AI can generate not only synthetic voices but also entire virtual personas, making it easy to deceive enemies and manipulate scenarios. For instance, AI could simulate false orders, leading a target to reveal critical information or take harmful actions. GenAI also plays a role in reconstructing scenarios that predict enemy behavior or craft strategies in real-time, making it a key tool in both cyber-espionage and battlefield strategy.

The conflict in Ukraine highlights the growing presence of AI-driven autonomous systems. There, AI-enabled drones autonomously identify and attack targets, while Generative AI creates battlefield simulations that anticipate enemy actions. In the Middle East, Israel's Iron Dome uses AI to intercept missiles autonomously, representing a powerful example of how AI-powered defenses can operate with little human intervention.

The Global AI Arms Race and the Challenges of Weaponization

Global powers are now racing to dominate AI weaponization, with countries like China, Russia, and the U.S. leading the charge. This competition mirrors the Cold War arms race, but today’s weapons are autonomous systems, not nuclear missiles. Autonomous AI systems are being developed to make real-time decisions on the battlefield, without the need for human input. Russian President Vladimir Putin once remarked that the country that leads in AI will rule the world, underscoring how critical AI is to future geopolitical dominance.

Despite the high stakes, international governance lags behind the technology. There are few regulations or ethical guidelines to govern the use of autonomous weapons systems (AWS), leaving a dangerous vacuum in which these technologies could escalate conflicts unpredictably. Tshilidzi Marwala emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and adaptive governance frameworks, but the absence of standardization exposes vulnerabilities.

Ethical and Governance Concerns: The Human Element at Risk

The militarization of AI raises profound ethical issues. Generative AI, capable of autonomously generating actions or decisions, could make fatal errors, leaving questions about accountability. In scenarios where AI systems misidentify targets or wrongly assess a situation, who is responsible? Can we leave life-or-death decisions to algorithms? As warfare becomes increasingly AI-driven, the risks of accidental escalation grow exponentially, especially if autonomous systems act faster than human oversight can manage.

Furthermore, bias in AI algorithms complicates military decisions. AI-driven weapons, drones, or surveillance systems could unintentionally target civilians or misinterpret data, leading to tragic outcomes. This is particularly concerning in high-tension regions like the Middle East, where AI systems are already part of the defense and offense matrix.

Marwala highlights the critical need for adaptive governance, meaning regulations that evolve as AI technology progresses. International bodies, such as the United Nations, need to develop frameworks that control the rise of autonomous weapons systems before they lead to disastrous outcomes. However, the race to dominate AI weaponry complicates these discussions, as nations prioritize their own advancement over collective safety.

The Future of Warfare: AI, Governance, and Global Stability

As AI become more sophisticated, their application in warfare is set to grow. The fusion of cyber-physical warfare and AI presents a future where autonomous drones, AI-driven decision systems, and cyber-espionage tools determine the outcome of conflicts. Without significant international cooperation and regulatory frameworks, AI-driven conflicts could spiral out of human control, leading to unintended consequences on a global scale.

In the future, multi-polar AI superpowers—nations or regions with advanced AI technologies—could redefine global power dynamics. Beyond Generative AI, other advanced military AI technologies like AI-powered surveillance systems, autonomous drones, and swarm robotics will play critical roles. Reinforcement learning algorithms are already optimizing tactical decisions in real-time, while predictive analytics can foresee enemy movements by analyzing vast datasets. These technologies, combined with cyber-physical warfare, significantly raise the stakes, demanding swift action from global governance bodies to establish norms and prevent misuse in escalating conflicts.

Conclusion: A Call for Adaptive Leadership

The rapid advancement of AI technologies like Generative AI, machine learning, and autonomous systems is fundamentally altering global conflict. From turning everyday devices into surveillance tools to deploying autonomous weapon systems that act independently, the risks posed by AI-driven warfare are immense. Without strong international collaboration and governance, the future of warfare could be dictated by machines rather than humans.

Leaders must act now, ensuring AI development remains ethical and aligned with global security needs. Otherwise, we may face a future where swarm drones and cyber-physical warfare make decisions faster than we can control.

The real question remains: will we regulate AI, or will AI end up regulating us? Or worse—will our reinforcement-learning machines decide they no longer need us at all?

About the Author

Sam Obeidat: Angel Investor, Futurist, AI Strategy Expert, and Technology Product Lead

Sam Obeidat is an internationally recognized expert in AI strategy, a visionary futurist, and a technology product leader. He has spearheaded the development of cutting-edge AI technologies across various sectors, including education, fintech, investment management, government, defense, and healthcare.

With over 15,000 leaders coached and more than 31 AI strategies developed for governments and elite organizations in Europe, MENA, Canada, and the US, Sam has a profound impact on the global AI landscape. He is passionate about empowering leaders to responsibly implement ethical and safe AI, ensuring that humans remain at the center of these advancements.

Currently, Sam leads World AI X, where he and his team are dedicated to helping leaders across all sectors shape the future of their industries. They provide the tools and knowledge necessary for these leaders to prepare their organizations for the rapidly evolving AI-driven world and maintain a competitive edge.

Through World AI, Sam runs a monthly executive program designed to transform participants into Chief AI Officers (CAIOs) and next-gen leaders within their domains. Additionally, he is at the forefront of the World AI Council, building a global community of leaders committed to shaping the future of AI.

Sam strongly believes that leaders from all sectors must be prepared to drive innovation and competitiveness in the near future. His mission is to equip them with the insights and strategies needed to succeed in an increasingly AI-integrated world.

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